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Colossal waterspout spotted in southwest China

For example, the multidecadal variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones may be influenced by natural variability of the Atlantic, including a phenomenon known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation AMO , as well as external forcing , including anthropogenic effects. Since the record of accurate tropical cyclone activity is short compared to this variability, it is difficult to separate the causes of variability on these longer time scales see Hurricanes and Climate. Additional Links on HSS.

Additional Resources. Hurricane Science. Hurricane Structure. Hurricane Genesis: Birth of a Hurricane. Hurricane Development: From Birth to Maturity. Hurricane Decay: Demise of a Hurricane. Interaction between a Hurricane and the Ocean. Interaction between a Hurricane and the Land. Variability of Hurricane Activity. Graph of hurricane frequency for the Atlantic Ocean hurricane season. A peak in activity from August through October is clearly visible. Image credit: NOAA. The figure above shows the conditions during normal and El Nino years.

Usually, sea-surface temperatures off South America's west coast range from Deep atmospheric convection over the equatorial Pacific is generally confined to this warm pool area top panel. North Atlantic hurricane tracks from the year prior, during, and after an El Nino. Clearly, hurricanes activity is reduced during the El Nino years. Disclaimer Please address comments and questions to hurricane etal. Lorem ipsum dolor. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Praesent eget mauris vitae purus aliquet pretium. Nullam nibh neque, consectetur vel, iaculis vitae, volutpat et, mi.

Aliquam vel justo id purus facilisis ultricies. Nulla facilisi. Figure 3 - Click here.

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Tropical Cyclone Activity over the North Indian Ocean | SpringerLink

These records provide an important global record of tropical cyclone activity, compiled for the period through a combination of ship logs and land-based records for the early decades, and aerial reconnaissance and satellite imagery in more recent years. Furthermore, it is argued that the record is most accurate for storms at their maximum intensity: the storm has been in existence sufficiently long to be detected and monitored independently, and a greater impetus is placed on accurate recording as the storm develops a greater destructive potential. CAT5 storms, which had not previously been recorded for the basin, occurred more frequently in the period than in the previous decadal periods of and The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has long suggested that climate change would result in an increased frequency and intensity of severe climatic events.

This increase in frequency coupled with a net reduction in cumulative counts of CAT4 and CAT5 storms 16 demonstrates that the storms previously terminating at CAT4 intensity are instead increasingly reaching CAT5 intensity - a feature further reflected in the increase in the percentage of CAT4 and CAT5 storms as a subset of all tropical cyclones, both in the South Indian Ocean and globally.

The warming trend in sea surface temperatures has resulted in a poleward shift in the South Indian Ocean These changes are occurring concurrently with a poleward shift in the latitude of the storm track position at the points of intensification to and dissipation from CAT5 for the 12 storms on record.

Acknowledgments

These findings regarding the concurrent shifts in the These results provide a concerning outlook for the South Indian Ocean. The region comprises a number of economically developing countries and small island states, which cannot afford large capital investment in infrastructural adaptation measures to mitigate against the threats of tropical cyclones. Furthermore, the poleward trajectory of these storms indicated by the 12 CAT5 tropical cyclones that have been recorded thus far, and global studies indicating a poleward trajectory in the lifetime maximum intensity of tropical storms 11 , pose a heightened threat for South Africa.

Although the South African coastline is currently protected from tropical cyclones by Madagascar, this southward trajectory has the potential to heighten the proportion of storms tracking south of this island nation which currently takes the brunt of tropical cyclones in the South Indian Ocean.

High intensity storms would not only increase the potential for damage through the heightened wind speeds and rainfall 24 , but storms of higher intensity additionally have a wider storm radius, increasing the region of damage on landfall. Considerable further monitoring of tropical cyclones in the region is warranted to confirm the trends identified from the IBTrACS storm track and GrADS V4 sea surface temperature imagery, and incorporate the findings into climate modelling efforts for the region. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.


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J Geophys Res Oceans. Trans R Soc S Afr. Tropical cyclone activity over Madagascar during the late nineteenth century. Landsea C. Counting Atlantic tropical cyclones back to Atlantic hurricane database uncertainty and presentation of a new database format. Mon Weather Rev. Chan JC. Comment on "Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment".

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